Zakaria: Georgia more 1979 than 1956

August 30th, 2008

Fareed Zakaria argues that Russia’s invasion of Georgia is more akin to Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 than their invasion of Hungary in 1956, a strategic blunder rather than a sign of Russia’s assertiveness and future.

He makes a decent point: Russia’s invasion of Georgia has driven the Ukraine and Poland into the open arms of the West, and isolated Russia from their traditional supporters against the West — former Soviet central asian states, and China.

But I think he misreads Russia’s invasion of Georgia. Zakaria states that Russia invaded Georgia and all it has to show for it is a lousy t-shirt, err, south Ossetia.

During the invasion, Russia attempted to bomb a central oil pipeline running through Georgia and into Turkey. This was not a mistake. Russia targeted the pipeline to show the West, and Europe particularly, who controls their oil. Europe depends on Russian natural gas running through the Ukraine, and has shut it off before.

Zakaria reads the invasion as a re-assertive Russia attempting to re-take a former sphere of influence and state while it is rich with oil wealth, and failing because the globalized world does not look favorably upon Russia’s ambitions. Not completely inaccurate, but it misses the big picture.

Putin, still firmly in control of Russia in his Prime Minister position, has re-created Russian autocracy, and is now showing Russia’s power in all senses — military, with Georgia; economic, with Georgia and Russian oil flowing to Europe through the Ukraine oil pipeline; diplomatic, through their alliance with Iran, Venezuela, et al.; and espionage through their assassinations and attempted assassinations in the Ukraine and Europe.