TightWind is written by Kyle Baxter. Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

Greg Mankiw’s chart of actual unemployment data versus the administration’s predictions:

The Obama administration predicted that, without the stimulus, unemployment would be at about 8.8% in October; with the stimulus, just under 8%. This is what was used to justify the stimulus passed.

In reality, unemployment has not only tracked higher than what they predicted it would be if the stimulus was passed, but higher than what they predicted it would be without the stimulus.

So there’s two possible interpretations here. First, the administration’s economists can’t accurately predict what will happen (the “baseline” of unemployment was worse than they expected), and second, the stimulus failed.

What we’re left with, then, is not being able to trust the administration’s judgment on the economy, or not being able to trust their judgment on the economy.

The argument I’ve heard is that unemployment would have been even worse without the stimulus. Well, okay. That means, though, there’s no accountability — the administration can take certain actions, and when it fails, they can just change the measures for success (that they created) so they look favorable.

Convenient, and dishonest.