While there is sure to be regional spillover, it will cut mainly against Tehran. There will be tough times ahead for Lebanon, but ultimately the Assad regime’s death throes can only work against the Shiite Hezbollah movement. Iraq’s ruling Shiite leadership, hitherto sycophantic where Iranian interests are concerned, may find it necessary to distance itself from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s more unpopular Arab clients. With its own restive Sunni minority, Iran itself could be severely rattled by sectarian blowback.
True enough. More radical involvement in the opposition is far, far from preferable, but also probably inevitable. Our best plan, I think, is to make good contacts with the opposition, maintain a good relationship, and hope that the resulting government takes the path Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhoods seems to be taking—moderation.