TightWind is written by Kyle Baxter. Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

Chen Guangcheng, a blind Chinese lawyer and human rights activist, escaped extralegal house arrest last week and is believed to be hiding in the U.S. embassy or somewhere else in Beijing. The event, and the U.S.’s involvement, could stir up tensions once again between the U.S. and China.

I hope that Chen is indeed in the U.S. embassy, because no where else is safe. Chen’s escape is highly problematic for Beijing because it makes house arrests—one of China’s favorite tools for silencing dissidents and something they’d much rather not discuss at all—very public, and it weakens the government’s perceived power. After all, if even a blind man can escape police cordons and evade capture in the nation’s capital, how capable is it?

Worse, it means how they will deal with Chen will be very public, too. Do they allow Chen to go free, and weaken their perceived strength even more? Do they put Chen in prison, and receive international condemnation? And if Chen is in the U.S. embassy, do they risk relations with the U.S. by demanding that the U.S. hand him over?

There’s no good answer for Beijing. Their preferred approach, I would assume, would be to imprison Chen and let the controversy fade away, but with his escape being such an incredible story and embarrassment to the government, that may not be possible. Moreover, the government (and party) already feels particularly wounded after Bo Xilai’s downfall, so Chen’s escape piles on. This may be the most destabilizing period for the CCP since 1989.