TightWind is written by Kyle Baxter. Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

Horace Dediu:

So if history serves as a guide, the displacement of the PC won’t come from a direct substitution but a more sinister and hard-to-predict subversion through new applications and a re-definition of what a PC is. The driving forces are not just volumes but new input methods, new user interfaces, new jobs to be done, new software and many innovative companies working within an ecosystem.

Disruptions first appear to be no threat to the product types they end up upending. The iPhone couldn’t replace the Blackberry initially, because it was not nearly as capable for enterprises—but it didn’t need to be, because it was really, really useful for consumers. A phone which could browse the web, and replace their iPod was huge, and so it took the consumer market.

Over time, it gained the features necessary for enterprise success—Microsoft Exchange support, remote-wipe, et cetera—and now RIM has no growth market. The iPhone and iPhone-like competitors took the consumer market from them and are taking enterprise, too.

That’s how disruption starts: it begins in an area that doesn’t seem connected, but then grows until it encompasses the market it is disrupting, and by that point there’s little the incumbents can do. The rules have changed.