TightWind is written by Kyle Baxter. Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

Iranian religious critic Mohsen Kadivar thinks the Iranian regime will collapse in its current form, and that rejecting the government’s legitimacy may be the best option for Western countries:

The tightening of sanctions is not the right path ahead. They affect the people more than the government. A military attack is something I categorically reject. Perhaps Western countries should stop treating Ahmadinejad’s government as the legitimate government of Iran. Otherwise, I think the reforms must be pushed forward from inside the country.

It’s an interesting (if short) interview, and I suggest you read it.

That may be a viable strategy now. During the summer, when the opposition movement was in its infancy, I was opposed to refusing to recognize the Ahmadinejad government’s legitimacy because that would have given ammunition to the regime’s claim that the opposition was a Western conspiracy. That may have killed the movement before it even really began.

But that isn’t the case today. Opposition to the regime now comes from all parts of Iranian society. Kadivar mentions that during Hossein Ali Montazeri’s funeral procession earlier this month in Qom (one of Shia Islam’s holiest, and most conservative, cities), mourners shouted “Death to the Dictator!”

During the summer, protests centered around Ahmadinejad’s regime, and not Khamenei — they did not question the Islamic republic’s legitimacy, just the “elected” regime’s. These chants in Qom are aimed at Khamenei. This is a large shift in the movement, made where Khamenei can’t overlook it.

To put this in perspective, in the U.S., this would be equivalent to a large movement challenging the Constitution’s legitimacy rather than just the president’s or Congress’s. They consider the entire system as corrupt.

So now may be the right time to not recognize Ahmadinejad’s regime. But the administration’s strategy to limit Iran’s nuclear program is tied to the regime’s legitimacy. If we don’t recognize Ahmadinejad, and more importantly the people don’t, then negotiating with them is meaningless. There’s good reason for this — if the government collapses, hardline Revolutionary Guard could take over (which would afford no opportunity for eliminating their nuclear program), or chaos could reign.

But this strategy leaves us in an unsavory position: if not in support of, then unopposed to, a corrupt, anti-American regime.