TightWind is written by Kyle Baxter. Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

A Zogby poll shows that after Obama’s convention speech and McCain’s announcement of Palin as his running mate, the two candidates are virtually tied.

But what I found most interesting were the numbers when Barr and Nader are factored in, specifically among independents. Barr is currently polling at 5%, with 4% of Republicans and 11% of Independents supporting him. His Independent support is quite large, and favorably for McCain, someone willing to support Barr is more likely to support McCain than Obama on economic issues.

Moreover, 12% of Independents remain undecided. In other words, Democrats and Republicans have now almost entirely fallen in line with their party’s ticket, but a large percentage of Independents — 37% including Nader’s supporters — are either undecided or supporting a third-party candidate.

This means the race will be heavily dependent on the Independent vote. Obama should pick up 3% of Independents supporting Nader, increasing his support among Independents to 42%, but McCain could conceivably pick up as much of 8% of Barr’s Independent supporters, bringing his support from Independents to 41%. At that point, undecided Independents become key. McCain needs them to split evenly, which may be enough to give him the lead (however slim) in overall vote because of his greater appeal with Democrats (8% of Democrats in this poll supported McCain, while 4% of Republicans supported Obama).

Palin, though, is an unknown. In this poll, 7% of Democrats and 5% of Republicans are undecided. Palin’s social conservative positions should help shore up McCain’s Republican support, peeling off 1-2% from undecided Republicans, which would further strengthen McCain’s position. If Palin appeals to just a small percentage of Democratic women, that could weaken Obama’s support and give McCain an edge.

Ultimately, this simply means it is a close election, and barring any October surprises, I think it is going to come down to election day. Whichever party is more motivated to get out the vote will win.